Radhe is looking to be first big release this year in May as Sooryavanshi may see a release post Radhe in June. It is being hoped that Sooryavanshi will be a Holi release but that may not happen. There is also hope for a 2nd April release which is Easter but if it is going to release in this period it would be pointless to let go of a mass holiday for Holi which runs for 2-3 days in some states for Easter which is more of a city holiday. The Easter advantage you can get in second week.
The problem seems to be the 50% capacity rule and the fact that North America and Europe have little chance of opening up by April. There is hope that Rajasthan and Jharkhand will open up by that time but here it just 7% of all India so even if they are closed its not a huge amount being lost.
If we look at the last two Akshay Kumar HIT films then North America and Europe was around 67% of the Overseas business of Good Newwz and around 47% of Housefull 4. Sooryavanshi will probably have ratios more like Housefull 4 but that is still almost half of the Overseas business.
Then there is the 50% occupancy rule which makes things difficult. In Tamil Nadu the release of Master saw many exhibitors not going by the rules and allowing full occupancy but the exhibitors in Hindi circuits will find that harder to do as state governments likely to be more stringent. More than the hit in business is this rule keeps the family audience away as it gives the feeling of something is not correct especially with the multiplex family audience and they form a huge chunk of the business.
The thinking will be that if we have waited for one year then another two months will not make much of a difference but for the industry as a whole this pushes things back a month or two for everyone which will lead to clashes in the second half of the year.
If Sooryavanshi is pushed out to June 9 (actually pushed out is not the right word as a Holi / Easter date has never been announced anyway) then it will left to Salman Khan and Eid to get things going with Radhe. There will be films before but generally nothing that is audience friendly. Hollywood would have some releases which can be used as gauge how the Hindi circuits are going. Also a big Punjabi film Puaada will open in March will tell where business in Punjab, Delhi and a few other cities stands at the time.
At present its is the Telugu industry is leading the way with the SUPERHIT Krack and a couple of other successful films in the last 4-5 weeks and the flow of films has started. They could even see two huge films with their biggest superstars Chiranjeevi and Pawan Kalyan before the release of Radhe and biggie RRR will now come this October rather than next January which is further prood of the confidence in the market.