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Trade expectations from 2017 films

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It’s that time of the year when we begin looking forward to what’s in store for the new year. 2017 is packed with almost all major weekends booked well in advance.
Salman Khan has taken two of the biggest festive weekends of 2017 – Tubelight on Eid and Tiger Zinda Hai on Christmas. The biggest superstar from the south, Rajnikanth, takes the Diwali weekend for his next film ‘2.o’ also starring Akshay Kumar as the lead villain.
Shah Rukh Khan has announced his film with Imtiaz Ali for the ‘Independence Day’ weekend, while Varun Dhawan has booked ‘Judwaa 2’ for the extended Dusshera – Gandhi Jayanti weekend next year.
For our initial ‘IndicineLBO’ predictions for 2017, we decided to ask people from the trade, industry and a few others who we think are ‘box office aware’ and can give us realistic predictions. More than 60 people were asked, most of them from the trade (exhibitors, distributors etc) for their expectations and the number in the table below is the ‘average’ of all predictions that they made.

Ok Jaanu Jan 13 46 crore
Kaabil Jan 25 82 crore
Raees Jan 25 131 crore
Jolly LLB 2 Feb 10 86 crore
Rangoon Feb 24 53 crore
Commando 2 Mar 03 30 crore
Badrinath Ki Dulhania
Mar 10 98 crore
Sarkar 3 Mar 17 41 crore
Phillauri Mar 24 32 crore
Naam Shabana
Mar 31 34 crore
Jagga Jasoos Apr 7 73 crore
Fast and Furious 8
Apr 14 108 crore
Bahubali 2 Apr 28 176 crore
Meri Pyaari Bindu
May 12 38 crore
Half Girlfriend May 19 96 crore
Toilet Ek Prem Katha
June 2 84 crore
Raabta June 9 52 crore
Tubelight Eid 307 crore
Munna Michael July 7 68 crore
Bareilly Ki Barfi July 21 31 crore
Mubarakan July 28 67 crore
Secret Superstar
Aug 4 54 crore
SRK-Imtiaz Film
Aug 11 173 crore
Baadshaho Sep 1 75 crore
Simran Sept 15 23 crore
Judwaa 2 Sep 29 118 crore
Robot 2 Diwali 150 crore
Padmavati Nov 17 115 crore
Tiger Zinda Hai Christmas 295 crore

Note: All predictions were asked to be made on the assumption that the films will carry ‘mixed to good’ word-of-mouth. The above mentioned films could collect a lot less if they are rejected or much more if the word-of-mouth is excellent.
Some points:
Salman Khan films are in a different league altogether when it comes to trade expectations. The trade and the industry expect Kabir Khan’s Tubelight to become the highest grosser of the year, followed very closely by ‘Tiger Zinda Hai’. The high expectations are understandable too as Salman should get a solo release during two of the biggest weekends of 2017.
The trade believes only two films – Tubelight and Tiger Zinda Hai – will cross the 200 crore mark next year.
Expectations are high from the two South films – Baahubali: The Conclusion and Robot 2.0 – both potential 150 crore plus grossers in Hindi.
The two Shah Rukh Khan films are expected to score somewhere around the 150 crore mark too. Raees, the trade believes, will win the clash against Kaabil by a fairly big margin. The Imtiaz Ali film carries high expectations, it has a good weekend too and should get a solo release.
If Varun Dhawan manages to achieve the kind of numbers that the trade expects out of him, he’ll take big strides in the industry in 2017. He has the biggie ‘Judwaa 2’, which has a fantastic release date.
Akshay Kumar has two slightly off-beat films in 2017, which explains why Jolly LLB 2 and Toilet: Ek Prem Katha are carrying ’80 crore’ expectations. He could over-achieve if those films turn out to be very well made, Toilet could get tax exemptions too.
Padmavati was the big shocker to us, because the film is being made on a massive budget and Bhansali is returning after Bajirao Mastani. But the trade doesn’t trust Sanjay Leela Bhansali until he actually delivers.
Arjun Kapoor too could have a solid 2017 if his two films – Half Girlfriend and Mubarakan – work at the box office. Both films are expected to appeal to a wider section of the audience.
Aamir Khan only has a cameo in ‘Secret Superstar’, but very little is known about the film. The expectations are quite high because it’s being produced under the ‘Aamir Khan Productions’ banner.
in General by Executive Producer (63.7k points)

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I agree with the list except Ring & kaabil both movies would be biggest flop of 2017

by Production Accountant (29.0k points)
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