Uri released on this same date in 2019 and scored really well, but that is because it had excellent Word-of-Mouth. Here it's not necessary that these two movies sustain long enough to take advantage of the open playing field.
Tanhaji will take the better initial because of it's genre and Ajay's mass following, but in terms of overall performance, will the movie be able to hold well enough to score really big?
And Chhapaak will definitely have the social media on it's side in the clash. The topic is a very sensitive one and out of general principle, many people will support it. The question is whether those people will actually show up to watch it. Also, it will be interesting to see if people avoid watching Chhapaak because some might not want to experience such a tale.
For both movies the point of success varies. Tanhaji can take an 12cr opening and Chhapaak can take an 8cr opening, but Chhapaak would definitely be considered as the better performer in that scenario. In terms of overall box office, either movie could strike a chord and go on to be a big success. Tanhaji has big potential in Mumbai and if Chhapaak is able to be crowd-pleasing and inspiring enough, it could genuinely get huge buzz.
For my money, I think both will emerge hits, but Tanhaji will lead from opening day to lifetime.
What's your opinion?
Tanhaji will win.
(11 votes, 92%)
Chhapaak will win.
(1 vote, 8%)
Chhapaak will surprise everyone and manage to have the bigger opening day.