TOH will certainly break dangal's record,i think because domestic gross of Thugs will be 50cr+ more than Dangal.
With Yrf backing overseas will be far better than Dangal min 5M+ difference remember dhoom3 which broke all Opening & lifetime records despite being a Action movie carrying mixed wom.
Now coming to China Yrf is trying to release it on the same day as of rest of the world in 3D, IMAX 3D.
So we can expect nearly 100cr Opening & my gut feeling says it will work huge in China.
So inshort Thugs will definitely break dangal's record unless Victor messes it up very badly which i don't think will happen with the backing of Aamir & Yrf.