I voted for Varun but I think in real terms Ranbir is as big as him. He just hasn't picked the right movies. He is the only one of these youngsters to give a record opening, and the first one to give a BB.
Besharam also took a great opening but then terrible WOM came into play on day 1 itself.
The biggest issue I see with Varun is that he is not making any big budget movie that can really go crazy at the BO. He is at most making mid budget movies, maybe he doesn't want to lose the 'no flops' tag. He is getting more succes in TV though, which will pay off in the future.
Currently Ranbir has 2 movies lined up both with 200cr+ potential. The whole narrative will change if these movies are able to score.
Ranveer on the other hand needs to get a HIT without SLB asap. And also he doesn't have a big success on TV yet.