Padman had a fair start of around 20-25%. The opening is similar to Toilet Ek Prem Katha in the big cities but a less in the smaller cities but this is expected as its a film for the ladies audience and the mass male audience is not likely to come on the first morning.
The film could still put up decent numbers in places like Gujarat, Rajasthan and MP despite not being for that audience as with Tiger Zinda Hai finished in these places and Padmaavat not playing it has an open field in these markets. The main markets will be the bigger cities and they can push the film over the weeeknd.
The film has an unusual theme and although is good for calling a film different and all that but the box office works in a different way and these themes take time and get accepted if the film has entertainment
The fair start here is due to Akshay Kumar otherwise this type of film could have been really struggling for initial numbers. Now the film is in a position to make good headway on Saturday and Sunday if the content is accepted and then it has the potential of a strong weekday run due to thw holidays.
The business on Sunday will be crucial as the Saturday jump will be there but Sunday has to follow up as that is when the families come out and the subject of the film can be awkward for the conservative family audience. This is where the film will need humour for the subject to be told in a light way so the family audiences accept the film.
If the strongest point of the film is Akshay Kumar, the weakest is the director as its actually impossible to think that a director with a story telling style of Paa, Cheeni Kum etc can give a big grosser unless it a huge budget which is not a the case here.
But there is a chance of a grosser here due to the star but obviously the story cant be told like the Cheeni Kum's of the world and has to be in a simplier format and easily understood.