The expected clash of between Padman and Padmavat is as of now a certainty though it would have been better if this did not happen. The issue here is that these two are the among the 15-20 films releasing in 2018 which have a chance of being liked and working at the box office and a clash is not the problem either as the window is there and it has been seen in the past year or so that business is better at certain times of the year.
The problem here is that it just unethical for the makers of Padmavat to come on a date where other films are releasing as basically Padmavat is not a normal film but a time bomb which has been suffering and now could make others suffer also.
There is not a screen issue as Padman does not really need more than 2000 screens as its not a huge film and the type of film that opens with a bang and these 2000 screens will be there for the film. In fact if the opponent was Aiyaary the film may have got a wider release which is not the need of the hour if a film like this is to sustain well over 2-3 weeks.
The main issue is that there are going to problems at release time in many states across the country unless the scenario changes a lot in the next two weeks. There was a time when each film was allocated a different theaters but now Padman and Padmavat will be sharing around 900 thetaers across the country. So when the release happens and there are protests and incidents it is not only Padmavat which is being hit but also Padman as it will also be showing in those same theaters.
It is a scenario where the problems of Padmavat will effect Padman when that film has nothing to with the issue. At present two states have banned Padmavat and they are Rajasthan and MP so in these two states nothing is likely to happen. The situation is such at the moment that in order for the innocent party Padman to have a clear run then Padmavat will have to banned in 5-6 states where incidents can occur and it should not be like that. A film like Tiger Zinda Hai lost 40-50 lakhs nett on day one as the film was stopped at many places for a minor issue, infact it was not even an issue. Here with Padmavat its a huge issue and manifold bigger than the problem Tiger Zinda Hai faced.
There is nothing wrong with a clash, a film could be releasing on a good period and a Bahabali type can decide to come on that date and make that date its own. That is all fair practice but here you have a film which is going to create tension when released and when there are other films on that date why pass on your problems to those other films as well unless you expect the others to move. There is a free date a week before and a week after, when 200 crore is needed for recovery, one single holiday is hardly going to make a difference as if it finishes with 190 or 200 crore its the same thing..
Normally you can give an excuse of no time to promote if the film is released a week earlier but the bet here is there will hardly be any promotion considering how the people involved in Padmavat be it makers or actors got into trouble with comments at the time of the trailer. Also the new release date has been announced in a fearful way which pretty much tells the magnitude of the problems for the film so a week earlier would have actually been better with less time between announcement and release. The hope will be a clear run for both films but that seems a tough task at the moment.