5th grosser is simply too much or it means the film has to be really bad to achieve that.
Why 4 because Salman's having 2 releases. Once Jai Ho releases, it will give the real picture. Salman's Kick will be among the top due to Eid factor. The only thing that will go against HNY is the Diwali & the recent figures say the Diwali film don't end up as a no.1 grosser. Nevertheless it is indeed a strong competitor to be in the top 3 & also to be on top 1 which cannot be ruled out.
Plus, Jai Ho will become the movie with highest screen size which will be broken by Kick. So whatever screen size Kick gets, HNY will definitely try to surpass it. That's the reason why HNY cannot be termed as a film that will end up as top 5 because HNY has ample opportunity to do record business if not on the Diwali day.